Friday, May 12, 2017

Polls on American Health Care Act (AHCA) After House Passage

HuffPollster reports on four polls that have gauged public opinion toward the American Health Care Act (ACHA), Speaker Paul Ryan's (R-WI) repeal-and-replacement bill for the Affordable Care Act (ACA; also known as Obamacare), since the bill passed the U.S. House on May 4. Note that some of the survey questions generating the following results alluded to the ACHA having passed, whereas others described the legislation as a proposal. Support for the AHCA comes in at:
  • 31% in a May 6 HuffPost/YouGov poll; this poll also found that, "Americans are more likely to be intensely opposed than even modestly supportive. Just 8 percent say they favor the bill strongly, with 34 percent strongly opposed."
  • 31% in a May 6-9 Economist/YouGov poll (strongly 11%, somewhat 20%). 
  • 38% in a May 4-6 Morning Consult/Politico poll (strongly 13%, somewhat 25%). This poll also found that, "...55 percent of voters said they support bas[ing tax] credits on people’s income and location — which is how Obamacare’s subsidies are calculated. In contrast, 18 percent of voters supported basing credits on age, as proposed in the GOP alternative." (The apparent rationale for age-based credits is that tax-based subsidies can be used to attract younger people to purchase health insurance.)
  • 21% in a May 4-9 Quinnipiac poll (strongly 9%, somewhat 12%). The Q-Poll also found that, "Voters say 75-21 percent, including 59-34 percent among Republicans, that it's a 'bad idea' to give states the ability to allow health insurance companies to raise rates on people with pre-existing conditions."
Overall, then, neither the AHCA as a whole, nor some of its specific policy changes to Obamacare, seem particularly popular at this time. The bill is now in the Senate's hands and, while most observers expect the Senate to make modifications, the extent of these is anybody's guess.

UPDATE (5/14/17): Via Political Wire, there's a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in which "just 23% call the legislation a good idea, including 18% who 'strongly' say that."