tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-76632365336792380712024-03-13T06:48:11.522-07:00Health Care PollsProf. Alan Reifman of Texas Tech University, who teaches social science research methodology, compiled and commented on health care-reform public opinion polls as Congressional debate heated up in the late summer and fall of 2009, and legislation was enacted in the spring of 2010. He continues to chime in periodically regarding new developments in the health care saga.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.comBlogger165125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-90180989454926815772023-12-02T13:13:00.000-08:002023-12-02T13:13:16.420-08:00ACA/Obamacare Continues to Grow in Popularity<p>Featuring the headline "Obamacare is even more popular than the last time Trump tried to kill it," <i>Politico</i> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/02/trump-obamacare-polling-support-00129721" target="_blank">reviews the latest trends</a> in public opinion regarding the landmark 2010 health-care law (brought to my attention via Political Wire).</p><p>The <i>Politico</i> article cites the May 2023 installment of the KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) health-care polling series, which found 59 percent of Americans support the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare. (Given the article's timing, I would have thought it would feature more recent polling on the ACA than May; instead the impetus for the article appears to be former president Donald Trump's recent statement about wanting to try again to repeal the law, should he return to office.)</p><p>According to a graph in the <i>Politico</i> article, support for the ACA ranged from 33-45% for most of the period between 2010-2016. Once Trump came into office in 2017 and on into 2018, ACA support approached and then exceeded 50%. Now it's approaching 60%. </p>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-11156419810034429422022-12-06T21:50:00.003-08:002022-12-06T22:10:02.052-08:00South Dakota Voters Pass Medicaid Expansion<p>Voters in another conservative state -- South Dakota -- have <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09/south-dakota-expand-medicaid-health-care-coverage-midterms-00065911" target="_blank">passed a ballot proposition</a> to expand Medicaid. The measure received 56 percent of the vote in the November 8 midterm elections. An overview of which states have expanded Medicaid coverage through the 2010 federal Affordable Care Act, and by which method (governor's executive action, legislation, or ballot proposition), is available <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/forefront.20210617.992286/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-51361364417777514942021-03-06T17:50:00.000-08:002021-03-06T17:50:22.156-08:00Polls on Medicaid Expansion in States That Have Not Participated Thus Far<p>A recent <i>Vox</i> article, focusing on the Biden Administration's attempts to convince Republican governors and legislators to expand Medicaid in states that have not yet done so, also contains polling data on Medicaid Expansion from eight states (out of the 12 total) not currently participating (<a href="https://www.vox.com/22315225/covid-19-third-stimulus-medicaid-expansion-funding" target="_blank">link</a>). At least a plurality, if not an outright majority, supports expansion in all of these states. These states (with their support levels, ordered from greatest to least) are Kansas (55%), Georgia (55%), North Carolina (53%), Florida (52%), Texas (52%), Wisconsin (52%), South Carolina (50%), and Alabama (45%). Note that sizable proportions of respondents (17-23%) are undecided in each state, so opposition in the states (23-37%) is well below support.</p>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-63663404010040931942021-02-17T12:14:00.001-08:002021-02-17T12:14:35.357-08:00Lessons from 2009-2010 ACA Public Opinion for Biden's 2021 Agenda<p>Noting the similarities between 2009 and 2021 -- a new Democratic president taking office with an ambitious policy agenda and his party holding majorities in the House and Senate -- Dan Hopkins examines <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-have-an-ambitious-agenda-heres-what-they-should-learn-from-obamacare/" target="_blank">what lessons</a> President Biden and the Democrats might learn for this year's policy debates (e.g., new COVID-19 economic-relief legislation) from the public's reaction to President Obama's rollout of the Affordable Care Act in 2009-2010. Hopkins focuses on a few major themes, such as how, when a bill has numerous provisions (as the ACA did), the public will likely focus on controversial and unpopular facets of the legislation, rather than its popular parts.</p>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-21112746325397717742021-02-04T11:39:00.000-08:002021-02-04T11:39:15.589-08:00Status of Obamacare as Biden Replaces Trump<p>This <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22238505/donald-trump-obamacare-joe-biden" target="_blank"><i>Vox</i> article</a> from the eve of President Biden's inauguration provides a good overview of where things stand at the moment with the 2010 Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare). The obvious news is that the law survived the Trump presidency largely intact, but there remain some court cases on aspects of it.</p>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-89447145504905565412020-08-06T07:43:00.004-07:002020-08-06T07:57:00.355-07:00Vox Summarizes Recent Missouri and Oklahoma Votes to Expand MedicaidMedicaid expansion is still undefeated when it has been placed on the ballot for statewide votes, even in very conservative states.* Missouri, two nights ago, and Oklahoma, on June 30, became the most recent states to expand Medicaid. The margin in Oklahoma was only 1 percent, whereas in Missouri it was 6 percent. <i>Vox</i> <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/8/5/21355515/missouri-oklahoma-medicaid-expansion-vote-results-covid-19" target="_blank">examines the two results</a> in light of how crisis situations such as the current COVID-19 outbreak and the 2008-2009 Great Recession can dramatically affect public opinion.<div><br /></div><div>---</div><div>*A Montana initiative that revolved around a tobacco tax to fund the state's portion of Medicaid expansion <a href="https://www.kpax.com/news/montana-politics/2018/11/07/medicaid-mining-water-treatment-ballot-measures-going-down-to-defeat/" target="_blank">failed in 2018</a>. Whether this result should be included with straight up-or-down votes on the question of whether or not to expand can be debated.<br /><div><br /></div></div>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-70174565708344765992020-07-01T00:35:00.001-07:002020-07-01T00:35:29.679-07:00New Study on Demographic and Political Correlates of Health-Insurance Policy PreferencesVia the <a href="https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/public-opinion-on-competing-approaches-to-health-reform/">Incidental Economist</a>, a team of researchers from Harvard and the Commonwealth Fund have published a (currently free) <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article/doi/10.1215/03616878-8543222/165992/The-Affordable-Care-Act-s-Missing-Consensus-Values">article</a> based on a 2019 U.S. nationally representative survey, examining how respondents' demographic and political characteristics correlate with their preferences for different types of health-insurance policies and programs. Respondents were asked to choose which option they preferred among keeping and improving the Affordable Care Act, switching to a Medicare for All program, or providing states with federal funding to develop their own programs (based on previous Republican proposals). Most respondents favored either variations on the ACA or Medicare for All.<br />
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Many of the findings were what most people would probably expect, such as the belief that "Guaranteeing health care is not [the] responsibility of government" being clearly associated with preference for the state option, or positive views of socialism being linked to support of Medicare for All.<br />
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In conclusion, the authors report "our results suggest that current ACA supporters may shift to greater support for Medicare for All if they become disenchanted with their own coverage, or if other circumstances or policies erode enthusiasm for private, employer-sponsored coverage. Views differentiating the third of Americans who favor devolving health care to the states are of a different flavor entirely: they are much more staunchly opposed to growing governmental
power and paying taxes to support universal coverage" (pp. 749-750).alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-72845629292303547182020-02-26T17:32:00.004-08:002020-02-26T17:32:56.594-08:00ACA at Its All-Time Highest Popularity Per Kaiser Family Foundation PollThis month's (February 2020) Kaiser Family Foundation <a href="https://www.kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-february-2020/">monthly tracking poll</a> shows support for the Affordable Care Act to be at the highest level ever recorded by this poll, 55%. Opposition is much lower, at 37%.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-13459977845816779672019-08-14T11:26:00.003-07:002019-08-14T11:26:37.569-07:00Implications of Public Opinion Toward Obamacare for New Medicare-Based ProposalsDemocrats fighting for their party's presidential nomination have been advocating ways to expand health-insurance coverage, such as Medicare for All and Medicare for All [Who Want It]. Over at Five-Thirty-Eight, Dan Hopkins looks at what the history of public-opinion polling on the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/obamacares-unpopularity-suggests-medicare-for-all-may-be-a-hard-sell/">might mean for the Democrats' new Medicare-based proposals</a>.<br />
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I do feel the headline's allusion to "Obamacare's Unpopularity..." may be misleading. The article itself nicely contextualizes the matter, arguing the the overall ACA has been <i>less popular than would be expected</i> from the high popularity of many of the law's provisions. Hopkins also notes that even the <i>overall</i> ACA has been above-water (approval greater than disapproval) since the time Trump took office. My point is simply that Obamacare has not been "unpopular" in an absolute sense in recent years.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-85262535891433835832019-03-29T11:24:00.002-07:002019-03-29T11:24:48.460-07:00Five-Thirty-Eight Examines Whether ACA Gets More Popular When Under ThreatFive-Thirty-Eight probes the question: "Does Trying To Repeal Obamacare <i>Actually</i> Increase Its Appeal?" (<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-trying-to-repeal-obamacare-actually-increase-its-appeal/">LINK</a>).alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-7746203325448453342019-03-26T13:23:00.000-07:002019-03-26T13:24:38.104-07:00 Trump Justice Department Recommends Total Obamacare Invalidation in Court Case<i>Vox</i> draws upon available opinion data to <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/26/18282282/trump-2020-election-odds-obamacare-unconstitutional-doj">anticipate the public's likely reaction</a> to the Trump Justice Department's recent shift to supporting a total invalidation of the Affordable Care Act in a lawsuit working its way up the federal court system.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-83909638401658266202018-12-18T11:39:00.000-08:002018-12-18T11:40:45.208-08:00Public Opinion on ACA Provisions Following Federal Judge's Invalidation of the LawAs many of you no doubt heard, a Texas-based federal judge recently <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/12/14/18065838/obamacare-unconstitutional-texas-ruling">found the entire Affordable Care Act unconstitutional</a>, claiming that Congress's elimination of the individual mandate in 2017 (technically, making the tax penalty $0 for not having health insurance) destroyed the legal pillars supporting the law.<br />
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Commentators have noted that, between appeals of this ruling and possible legislative action, the <a href="https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/a-texas-court-has-declared-the-entire-aca-unconstitutional/">ultimate impact on the public is uncertain</a>.<br />
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In the wake of this ruling, <i>Political Wire</i>'s Taegan Goddard <a href="https://politicalwire.com/2018/12/18/republicans-have-a-big-health-care-problem/">summarizes the latest Kaiser Family Foundation poll</a> on ACA policies. Spoiler alert: Strong overall majorities -- including majorities of self-identified Republicans -- support five key ACA provisions.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-14544395329694064092018-11-07T16:19:00.004-08:002018-11-07T16:19:59.243-08:00Medicaid Expansion Passes in Three 2018 State Ballot PropositionsBallot propositions to join the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/7/1810816/-Medicaid-expansion-romps-in-the-west">passed by solid margins</a> in three traditionally conservative states -- Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska -- last night. With a nod to the song "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theme_from_New_York,_New_York">New York, New York</a>," I would say that, in terms of public opinion, if Medicaid expansion can make it there (Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska), it can make it anywhere.<br />
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According to this <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/fact-sheet/what-does-the-outcome-of-the-midterm-elections-mean-for-medicaid-expansion/">Kaiser Family Foundation article</a>, "Following the election, 37 states including the District of Columbia have adopted the ACA’s Medicaid expansion." Results from gubernatorial elections in three additional states -- Maine, Wisconsin, and Kansas -- may lead to expansion there, as well.<br />
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A measure to extend Montana's Medicaid expansion with funding through taxes on cigarette products failed. According to <a href="https://kpax.com/news/montana-politics/2018/11/07/medicaid-mining-water-treatment-ballot-measures-going-down-to-defeat/">local coverage</a>:<br />
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<i>Money from the tax would have helped finance the state share of Medicaid expansion, which currently provides government-funded health coverage to nearly 100,000 low-income adults in Montana. The federal government covers 90 percent of its cost.</i><br />
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<i>[Initiative] 185 also would have made permanent the Medicaid expansion program, which is scheduled to expire next June.
</i>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-78909242670126940042018-10-26T08:03:00.002-07:002018-10-26T08:03:27.413-07:00How Public Opinion on Pre-Existing Conditions is Playing Out as the 2018 Midterm Elections Enter the Home StretchFive-Thirty-Eight <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-republicans-losing-the-health-care-debate/">reviews public-opinion data</a> on protecting the coverage of people with pre-existing conditions (and on the ACA in general) as November's midterm elections fast approach.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-90146623547029633662018-09-10T14:22:00.003-07:002018-09-10T14:22:32.865-07:00Polling on Protecting People with Pre-Existing Conditions<i>Vox</i> has an interesting <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/10/17842392/preexisting-conditions-political-power">article</a>, chock-full of polling data, on the "political power of pre-existing conditions."alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-55850681690823729022018-02-05T15:02:00.002-08:002018-02-05T15:02:18.128-08:00Contradictory Polls on Medicaid Work Requirements<i>Vox</i> reviews two recent polls that produced <a href="https://www.vox.com/health-care/2018/2/5/16975574/medicaid-work-requirement-paradox-polls">seemingly contradictory results</a> on whether the majority of Americans support work requirements for people to obtain Medicaid. One poll shows robust support for work requirements, the other not so much.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-29071074797506343442017-11-20T17:51:00.001-08:002017-11-21T17:32:25.143-08:00What Percentage of Americans Purchase Health Insurance Only Because of Individual Mandate?With U.S. Senate Republicans <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/14/politics/rand-paul-individual-mandate-tax-bill/index.html">leaning toward including a repeal of the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate</a> in their upcoming tax bill, the question once again emerges of how much the mandate affects people's decisions whether or not to obtain health insurance. Should the mandate to have health insurance be repealed, some people who currently have insurance likely would drop it. Decisions of some individuals (presumably in good health) to drop coverage could well have implications beyond those individuals themselves. The fewer the healthy people in the insurance pool, after all, the less money available for insurers to pay the relatively expensive claims of less-healthy people.<br />
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But how many people actually would drop coverage if the mandate were to be repealed? According to a <a href="http://www.freedomworks.org/content/obamacare-violates-rule-law">2013 essay from conservative-libertarian group Freedom Works</a>, "Forcing many of our citizens to buy expensive, unneeded and unwanted coverage, which, in turn, impairs every person's freedom to choose how they spend and use their money – [is] a total violation of our civil rights." One can only imagine health-insurance subscribers heading to the exits in droves to discontinue their coverage!<br />
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Well, as I learned this morning from a <i>New York Times</i> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/19/health/tax-plan-obamacare-mandate.html">article on the ACA mandate-repeal aspect of the GOP tax plan</a>, an October poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation examined this issue and the answer is... 7 percent. Quoting from the <i>Times</i>, "the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation found that just 7 percent of people who buy insurance on the individual market said they would go without coverage if the mandate were no longer enforced." The direct link to the Kaiser report is <a href="https://www.kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-october-2017-experiences-of-the-non-group-marketplace-enrollees/">here</a>; Figure 10 is where to look.<br />
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All the usual cautions about interpreting polls apply here. One in particular is that, whereas the full poll sample of roughly 2,500 has a narrow margin of error of +/- 2%, the subgroups of respondents for whom the question about dropping coverage is most relevant (i.e., those who bought their coverage via the ACA marketplaces or through all types of non-group-employer plans) have margins of error of +/- 9 and +/- 7, respectively (<a href="https://www.kff.org/report-section/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-october-2017-experiences-of-the-non-group-marketplace-enrollees-methodology/">Kaiser methodology report</a>).<br />
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The proportion of Americans who buy their health insurance on the ACA exchanges and who would drop this coverage if the individual mandate were lifted may thus actually be higher than 7%. It will still be a small minority of ACA customers.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-77145667883239129792017-09-29T11:12:00.003-07:002017-09-29T11:12:48.371-07:00Ezra Klein's "Why Obamacare Survived" Cites Public-Opinion SurveysWith Republican efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act stymied once again (for the short term, at least), Ezra Klein analyzes "<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/27/16372942/why-obamacare-survived">Why Obamacare Survived</a>" at <i>Vox</i>. The article cites and links to public-opinion surveys on consumers' satisfaction with the different types of health-care coverage they receive, and also provides several statistics on the costs of the ACA. All in all, Klein's article is a handy one to have, for analyzing health-insurance policy.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-7278227495010292782017-08-16T18:13:00.001-07:002018-06-12T14:27:48.046-07:00Blendon and Benson Article in New England Journal of MedicineRobert Blendon and John Benson have a new piece in the <i>New England Journal of Medicine</i>, entitled "<a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr1710032?query=featured_home">Public Opinion About the Future of the Affordable Care Act.</a>" Focusing on the aftermath of late July's failure of the U.S. Senate to pass an ACA "repeal and replace" bill, Blendon and Benson set out the following agenda in their article:<br />
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<i><span style="color: blue;">Our analysis of 27 national opinion polls by 12 survey organizations provides background on four critical issues relevant to the previous House and recent Senate health care decisions: the public favorability of the current law, the public values underlying the debate about the future, support for various health policy changes in the proposed Republican legislation, and support for the overall Republican proposals debated in the House and Senate.
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Vox's Sarah Kliff writes about the Harvard study, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/16/16158918/voxcare-poll-government-run-health-care">focusing on the substantial rise</a> in the percentage of Americans who believe the federal government has a duty to ensure that everyone has basic health insurance.<br />
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Another noteworthy finding I noticed is that the individual mandate, long the most unpopular feature of Obamacare, no longer appears to be so toxic. B&B note that: "...48% favored removing this requirement, whereas 50% were opposed" (from a <a href="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/03/06/rel4b.-.health.care.pdf">March 2017 CNN/ORC poll</a>).<br />
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A large amount of attention during this year's House and Senate debates focused on how the various Republican bills would treat people with pre-existing conditions. The House-passed bill featured the <a href="http://heavy.com/news/2017/04/macarthur-amendment-explained-health-care-act-obamacare-what-is-it-house-freedom-caucus/">McArthur-Meadows amendment</a>, which would allow states to opt out of some of the Obamacare coverage standards (including those protecting people with pre-existing conditions), as long as those states operated high-risk pools for this purpose. The Senate process included a proposed amendment by Ted Cruz, which would have allowed insurance companies to offer relatively cheap plans that did not comply with Obamacare standards, as long as they also offered plans that did.<br />
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Many have contended that high-risk pools typically are <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/3/15529428/republican-high-risk-pools">not funded well enough to help everyone</a> with expensive illnesses and chronic conditions to treat, and that the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2017/07/12/insurers-rip-ted-cruzs-trumpcare-amendment/#20bc465e2825">Cruz plan would likely make things difficult for those with pre-existing conditions</a> because the ACA-compliant plans would become very expensive. Two pertinent findings from the Harvard authors were that:<br />
<ul>
<li>"Approximately one third of the public (35%) believed that insurers should be allowed to offer health plans that cover fewer benefits than currently required"</li>
<li>" less than one fourth of the public believed that insurers should be allowed to charge more for people with preexisting conditions (24%)."</li>
</ul>
Kliff writes that "Blendon attributes the change in attitudes to Americans thinking through the consequences of repealing the Affordable Care Act, resulting in millions losing coverage." That seems as good as explanation as any.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-55146617916806390772017-07-20T08:48:00.001-07:002017-07-20T08:48:10.737-07:00"The Most Unpopular Bill in Three Decades"This is from about two weeks ago. Axios reported an analysis showing how <a href="https://www.axios.com/unpopular-health-care-bill-2454397857.html">public support for the Republicans' health care legislation compared to support for other controversial bills</a> (including, but not limited, to health care) over the past 30 years (via Vox).alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-45648021414875086902017-07-10T17:55:00.002-07:002017-07-10T17:57:54.262-07:00Medicaid Patients' Quality Ratings of Their CareMedicaid patients appear to rate the health care they receive very favorably, according to this <i>Huffington Post</i> <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/most-medicaid-enrollees-are-happy-with-coverage-as-it-is_us_5963925ee4b02e9bdb0e4aa7?s5r&ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009">report</a>. The article also contains statistics on doctors' willingness to take Medicaid patients.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-35934893945449650692017-06-26T22:42:00.004-07:002018-06-12T14:43:45.694-07:00Looking at Americans' Pro/Con Views of ACA to Anticipate How People Will Feel About Republicans' (Potential) ReplacementOver at FiveThirtyEight, Dan Hopkins <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-dont-like-about-obamacare/">attempts to connect</a> reasons cited by respondents in the past for supporting or opposing the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) to Americans' future attitudes toward a Republican replacement bill (should one pass). For example, the most commonly cited reason for supporting the ACA, endorsed by roughly 17% of respondents, was "increased access." Hopkins then invokes "initial analyses suggest[ing] that the proposed changes probably won’t cut out-of-pocket spending" and concludes, "if the reform reduces access to health insurance, it’s hard to envision the bill becoming more popular than the law it seeks to replace."alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-79751632424577280772017-05-31T23:24:00.003-07:002017-05-31T23:24:29.363-07:00Single-Payer Proposal in CaliforniaThe <i>Los Angeles Times</i> reports <a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-single-payer-healthcare-is-popular-with-1496288584-htmlstory.html">polling results</a> from the Public Policy Institute of California, under the headline "Single-payer healthcare is popular with Californians — unless it raises their taxes."alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-58148366590927740762017-05-12T10:51:00.003-07:002017-05-14T12:31:58.923-07:00Polls on American Health Care Act (AHCA) After House PassageHuffPollster reports on four polls that have gauged public opinion toward the American Health Care Act (ACHA), Speaker Paul Ryan's (R-WI) repeal-and-replacement bill for the Affordable Care Act (ACA; also known as Obamacare), since the bill <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/05/04/ahca_obamacare_repeal_passes_house.html">passed the U.S. House</a> on May 4. Note that some of the survey questions generating the following results alluded to the ACHA having passed, whereas others described the legislation as a proposal. Support for the AHCA comes in at:<br />
<ul>
<li>31% in a May 6 <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ahca-health-care-poll_us_59109a87e4b0e7021e99b049?">HuffPost/YouGov poll</a>; this poll also found that, "Americans are more likely to be intensely opposed than even modestly supportive. Just 8 percent say they favor the bill strongly, with 34 percent strongly opposed."</li>
<li>31% in a May 6-9 <a href="http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7gtsiw6kbg/econToplines.pdf"><i>Economist</i>/YouGov poll</a> (strongly 11%, somewhat 20%). </li>
<li>38% in a May 4-6 <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/10/obamacare-support-gop-alternative-poll-finds/">Morning Consult/<i>Politico</i> poll</a> (strongly 13%, somewhat 25%). This poll also found that, "...55 percent of voters said they support bas[ing tax] credits on people’s income and location — which is how Obamacare’s subsidies are calculated. In contrast, 18 percent of voters supported basing credits on age, as proposed in the GOP alternative." (The apparent rationale for age-based credits is that tax-based subsidies can be used to <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/09/health/aarp-older-people-health-insurance/">attract younger people</a> to purchase health insurance.)</li>
<li>21% in a May 4-9 <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2457">Quinnipiac poll</a> (strongly 9%, somewhat 12%). The Q-Poll also found that, "Voters say 75-21 percent, including 59-34 percent among Republicans, that it's a 'bad idea' to give states the ability to allow health insurance companies to raise rates on people with pre-existing conditions."</li>
</ul>
<div>
Overall, then, neither the AHCA as a whole, nor some of its specific policy changes to Obamacare, seem particularly popular at this time. The bill is now in the Senate's hands and, while most observers expect the Senate to make modifications, the extent of these is anybody's guess.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">UPDATE (5/14/17):</span></b> Via <a href="https://politicalwire.com/2017/05/14/just-23-like-gop-health-plan/">Political Wire</a>, there's a new <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/poll-48-percent-say-house-gop-health-care-bill-bad-n759201">NBC/<i>Wall Street Journal</i> poll</a> in which "just 23% call the legislation a good idea, including 18% who 'strongly' say that."</div>
alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7663236533679238071.post-57482219343644323592017-04-25T09:47:00.001-07:002017-04-25T09:47:45.193-07:00Obamacare's Popularity Keeps RisingSarah Kliff at <i>Vox</i> writes on how "<a href="http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/4/25/15419512/obamacare-poll-popular">Obamacare is Getting More Popular By the Day</a>."alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0