Thursday, May 21, 2015

Survey of Obamacare Enrollees' Satisfaction with their Plans

The headline at Vox.com reads "The best study done so far shows people with Obamacare plans like their plans," as Sarah Kliff summarizes a recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Popularity of Medicaid Expansion in Florida

PolitiFact Florida (associated with the Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald) consulted me and this blog to help adjudicate the question of how popular Medicaid expansion (part of the federal Affordable Care Act) is in the Sunshine State.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

L.A. Times: Republican Repeal Effort Losing Steam

The Los Angeles Times reports that Republican leaders, inside and outside Washington, DC, appear to be moving away from outright repeal of the Affordable Care Act as a legislative priority and toward more incremental change in the law (via Daily Kos). The article includes the following reference to public-opinion polling:

"Only 18% of Americans want to go back to the system we had before because they do not want to go back to some of the problems we had," Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster who works for presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, said at a recent breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. "Smart Republicans in this area get that," he added.

Friday, March 6, 2015

ACA Attitudes by Insurance Status; Racial Element to ACA Attitudes

Two brief notices from this week:

YouGov reports comparisons from its polls between newly insured Americans and those who remain uninsured. The former group supports Obamacare more than does the latter (via Huffpost/Pollster).

In conjunction with this week's Supreme Court oral arguments on Obamacare federal/state exchanges and eligibility for tax-credit subsidies, Amanda Marcotte reviews research.from last year suggesting a racial aspect to attitudes toward the Affordable Care Act.

Saturday, February 21, 2015

New York Times ACA Enrollment Charts

This New York Times piece includes several charts displaying how many people have signed up for health insurance in response to the ACA, under which specific programs, etc.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Greenberg-Ayres Battleground Poll Probes ACA "Opposition From the Left" with Novel Question-Wording

I've just finished listening to a Political Wire podcast, posted yesterday, in which Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg discusses a recent poll he conducted with Republican pollster Whit Ayres in states with "battleground" U.S. Senate races (almost certainly a more GOP-friendly electorate than is the case nationally) and the implications of the poll findings for the upcoming November elections.

Roughly between the 15:00-20:00 minute points of the interview, Greenberg discusses the portion of the poll pertaining to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), particularly regarding opposition to the law from the political left. Opposition from the left is not a new issue, as I (and other observers, such as Mark Blumenthal) have discussed it frequently in the past (herehere, here, and here).

Pollsters' attempts to assess reasons for opposition to the ACA have taken various forms. CNN/Opinion Research Corporation (ORC) has used the wording "Do you oppose that bill because you think its approach toward health care is too liberal, or because you think its approach toward health care is not liberal enough?" Other pollsters have asked whether respondents who oppose the ACA do so because it goes "too far" or "doesn't go far enough" (Ipsos-McClatchy) or because it involves too much or too little government entanglement with health care (Public Policy Polling).

Back in 2009, Blumenthal quoted Megan McArdle to the effect that the too-far/not-far-enough wording was susceptible to multiple interpretations. The phrase "not going far enough," McArdle argued, could have either a liberal, pro-government health care interpretation (i.e., the ACA didn't go far enough in expanding Medicare or creating a government single-payer system), or a conservative/libertarian interpretation (i.e., the ACA didn't go far enough in cutting back government subsidies of health care or means-testing programs).

This is where Greenberg and Ayres come in. To overcome the inherent lack of clarity in previously used terms such as "too far," these pollsters adopted the following wording (which Greenberg says was developed by Ayres) in their recent survey, to ask respondents who opposed the ACA why they did so. Opponents of the law were given the following two choices:

I'm opposed because it's a big government solution that we cannot afford. 

I'm opposed because you still have to buy private insurance and I'd prefer a single-payer, government-run system like Canada.

In response to the initial ACA question on the Greenberg-Ayres poll ("Do you support or oppose the health care reform law that passed in 2010, also known as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare?"), more respondents expressed opposition (54%) than supported it (42%). However, among the ACA opponents, 36% chose the anti-insurance company, pro-single payer option (about evenly divided between "strongly" and "somewhat" advocating that view).

(In the interview, Greenberg states that "one-fifth of the opponents are opposed because it's not a government-run, Canadian system." Perhaps he was referring only to the respondents who strongly endorsed the single-payer option.)

Greenberg discusses additional interesting issues in the interview besides the ACA, but naturally given the focus on this blog, the ACA question-wording was what I seized upon.