Implications of Public Opinion Toward Obamacare for New Medicare-Based Proposals

Democrats fighting for their party's presidential nomination have been advocating ways to expand health-insurance coverage, such as Medicare for All and Medicare for All [Who Want It]. Over at Five-Thirty-Eight, Dan Hopkins looks at what the history of public-opinion polling on the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) might mean for the Democrats' new Medicare-based proposals.

I do feel the headline's allusion to "Obamacare's Unpopularity..." may be misleading. The article itself nicely contextualizes the matter, arguing the the overall ACA has been less popular than would be expected from the high popularity of many of the law's provisions. Hopkins also notes that even the overall ACA has been above-water (approval greater than disapproval) since the time Trump took office. My point is simply that Obamacare has not been "unpopular" in an absolute sense in recent years.

Five-Thirty-Eight Examines Whether ACA Gets More Popular When Under Threat

Five-Thirty-Eight probes the question: "Does Trying To Repeal Obamacare Actually Increase Its Appeal?" (LINK).

Trump Justice Department Recommends Total Obamacare Invalidation in Court Case

Vox draws upon available opinion data to anticipate the public's likely reaction to the Trump Justice Department's recent shift to supporting a total invalidation of the Affordable Care Act in a lawsuit working its way up the federal court system.

Public Opinion on ACA Provisions Following Federal Judge's Invalidation of the Law

As many of you no doubt heard, a Texas-based federal judge recently found the entire Affordable Care Act unconstitutional, claiming that Congress's elimination of the individual mandate in 2017 (technically, making the tax penalty $0 for not having health insurance) destroyed the legal pillars supporting the law.

Commentators have noted that, between appeals of this ruling and possible legislative action, the ultimate impact on the public is uncertain.

In the wake of this ruling, Political Wire's Taegan Goddard summarizes the latest Kaiser Family Foundation poll on ACA policies. Spoiler alert: Strong overall majorities -- including majorities of self-identified Republicans -- support five key ACA provisions.

Medicaid Expansion Passes in Three 2018 State Ballot Propositions

Ballot propositions to join the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion passed by solid margins in three traditionally conservative states -- Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska -- last night. With a nod to the song "New York, New York," I would say that, in terms of public opinion, if Medicaid expansion can make it there (Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska), it can make it anywhere.

According to this Kaiser Family Foundation article, "Following the election, 37 states including the District of Columbia have adopted the ACA’s Medicaid expansion." Results from gubernatorial elections in three additional states -- Maine, Wisconsin, and Kansas -- may lead to expansion there, as well.

A measure to extend Montana's Medicaid expansion with funding through taxes on cigarette products failed. According to local coverage:

Money from the tax would have helped finance the state share of Medicaid expansion, which currently provides government-funded health coverage to nearly 100,000 low-income adults in Montana. The federal government covers 90 percent of its cost.

[Initiative] 185 also would have made permanent the Medicaid expansion program, which is scheduled to expire next June.

How Public Opinion on Pre-Existing Conditions is Playing Out as the 2018 Midterm Elections Enter the Home Stretch

Five-Thirty-Eight reviews public-opinion data on protecting the coverage of people with pre-existing conditions (and on the ACA in general) as November's midterm elections fast approach.

Polling on Protecting People with Pre-Existing Conditions

Vox has an interesting article, chock-full of polling data, on the "political power of pre-existing conditions."